Celta Vigo–Lyon

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 12 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Celta VigoJavi Rueda (assist: W. Swedberg)
54'Celta VigoBorja Iglesias · red card
87'LyonEndrick (assist: Clinton Mata)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celta Vigo		Lyon
5	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	6
3	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
0	Corners	7
0	Offsides	1
29%	Possession	71%
288	Passes	701
223	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celta Vigo 1.60 · Lyon 1.15. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Celta Vigo 5 · Lyon 20; on target 3 and 6.
Lyon kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

Eric Lambrechts, Belgium→

4.13

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Celta Vigo to win”. Second comes “Lyon to win” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Celta Vigo, 1.15 for Lyon.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,627 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celta Vigo to win48.1%

Draw24.1%

Lyon to win27.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

5	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.60

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lyon's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lyon score1.15

Attack: Lyon score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–010.5%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.