VfB Stuttgart–FC Porto

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 12 March 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.6% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'FC PortoT. Moffi (assist: Borja Sainz)
27'FC PortoRodrigo Mora (assist: Zaidu)
40'VfB StuttgartD. Undav (assist: B. El Khannouss)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfB Stuttgart		FC Porto
14	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
1	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
519	Passes	349
443	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart 1.34 · FC Porto 1.35. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots VfB Stuttgart 14 · FC Porto 14; on target 7 and 6.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Donatas Rumsas, Lithuania→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “VfB Stuttgart to win” at 37.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.35 for FC Porto.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,286 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfB Stuttgart to win37.1%

Draw25.2%

FC Porto to win37.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.34

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 46% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Porto score1.35

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%0–19.6%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.