Lille–Aston Villa

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 12 March 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'Aston VillaO. Watkins (assist: E. Buendía)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lille		Aston Villa
7	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	1
3	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	2
5	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
442	Passes	470
381	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lille 1.53 · Aston Villa 1.11. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Lille 7 · Aston Villa 9; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

José María Sánchez Martínez, Spain→

4.63

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.1%: “Lille to win”. Second comes “Aston Villa to win” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Lille, 1.11 for Aston Villa.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,648 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lille to win47.1%

Draw24.8%

Aston Villa to win28.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lille score1.53

Attack: Lille score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aston Villa score1.11

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lille's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%1–011.3%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.