Nottingham Forest–Fenerbahçe

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'FenerbahçeK. Akturkoglu (assist: S. Cherif)
48'FenerbahçeK. Akturkoglu (penalty)
68'Nottingham ForestC. Hudson-Odoi (assist: O. Aina)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nottingham Forest		Fenerbahçe
13	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	3
0	Offsides	3
54%	Possession	46%
537	Passes	469
465	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nottingham Forest 1.28 · Fenerbahçe 1.40. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Nottingham Forest 13 · Fenerbahçe 11; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

Maurizio Mariani, Italy→

4.10

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “Nottingham Forest to win” at 34.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Nottingham Forest, 1.40 for Fenerbahçe.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,681 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nottingham Forest to win34.7%

Draw25.2%

Fenerbahçe to win40.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nottingham Forest score1.28

Attack: Nottingham Forest score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fenerbahçe score1.40

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 56% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Nottingham Forest's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%0–110.0%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.