Ferencvarosi TC–Ludogorets

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Ferencvarosi TCG. Kanichowsky (assist: L. Joseph)
30'Ferencvarosi TCK. Zachariassen (assist: Dele)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ferencvarosi TC		Ludogorets
16	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	6
3	Offsides	4
40%	Possession	60%
288	Passes	437
220	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ferencvarosi TC 1.53 · Ludogorets 1.07. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Ferencvarosi TC 16 · Ludogorets 13; on target 8 and 3.
Ludogorets kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Chris Kavanagh, England→

4.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.3%: “Ferencvarosi TC to win”. Second comes “Ludogorets to win” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Ferencvarosi TC, 1.07 for Ludogorets.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,668 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ferencvarosi TC to win48.3%

Draw24.8%

Ludogorets to win26.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	14

5	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ferencvarosi TC score1.53

Attack: Ferencvarosi TC score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.53 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Ludogorets score1.07

Attack: Ludogorets score 51% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Ferencvarosi TC concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.07 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%1–011.7%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.