Plzen–Panathinaikos

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided on penalties: it was level after 90 minutes and extra time, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'PanathinaikosA. Tetteh (assist: Vicente Taborda)
62'PlzenKarel Spáčil (assist: Patrik Hrošovský)
105'PanathinaikosJavier Hernández · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Plzen		Panathinaikos
17	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
688	Passes	474
569	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Plzen 1.55 · Panathinaikos 1.29. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Plzen 17 · Panathinaikos 10; on target 2 and 3.
Plzen kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Donatas Rumsas, Lithuania→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.8%: “Plzen to win”. Second comes “Panathinaikos to win” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Plzen, 1.29 for Panathinaikos.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,719 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Plzen to win43.8%

Draw24.2%

Panathinaikos to win32.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Plzen score1.55

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.55 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Panathinaikos score1.29

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Plzen's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%1–09.4%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.