VfB Stuttgart–Celtic

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'CelticL. McCowan (assist: J. Adamu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfB Stuttgart		Celtic
24	Shots	3
8	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
13	Corners	7
6	Offsides	2
66%	Possession	34%
600	Passes	311
523	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart 2.16 · Celtic 1.22. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots VfB Stuttgart 24 · Celtic 3; on target 8 and 2.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Irfan Peljto, Bosnia & Herzegovina→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.2%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “Celtic to win” at 21.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.16 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.22 for Celtic.
The highest double chance value is 80.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,943 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfB Stuttgart to win59.2%

Draw19.8%

Celtic to win21.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score2.16

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Celtic concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celtic score1.22

Attack: Celtic score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.7%1–18.7%2–08.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.