Panathinaikos–Plzen

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'PlzenD. Visinsky (assist: L. Cerv)
31'PanathinaikosA. Tetteh (assist: Georgios Kyriakopoulos)
61'PanathinaikosA. Tetteh
80'PlzenT. Ladra (assist: M. Valenta)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Panathinaikos		Plzen
11	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	7
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	0
1	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
468	Passes	451
368	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Panathinaikos 1.63 · Plzen 1.31. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Panathinaikos 11 · Plzen 14; on target 5 and 7.

Referee

Nick Walsh, Scotland→

4.37

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “Panathinaikos to win”. Second comes “Plzen to win” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Panathinaikos, 1.31 for Plzen.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,704 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Panathinaikos to win45.3%

Draw23.6%

Plzen to win31.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Panathinaikos score1.63

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Plzen's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Plzen score1.31

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.31 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%2–19.2%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.