Ludogorets–Ferencvarosi TC

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'LudogoretsKwadwo Duah (assist: Pedro Naressi)
27'Ferencvarosi TCDele (assist: M. Abu Fani)
67'LudogoretsSon (assist: Erick Marcus)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ludogorets		Ferencvarosi TC
10	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
353	Passes	465
273	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ludogorets 1.30 · Ferencvarosi TC 1.27. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Ludogorets 10 · Ferencvarosi TC 17; on target 4 and 4.
Ferencvarosi TC kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Tobias Stieler, Germany→

3.36

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.9%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “Ferencvarosi TC to win” at 36.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Ludogorets, 1.27 for Ferencvarosi TC.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,655 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ludogorets to win37.9%

Draw25.8%

Ferencvarosi TC to win36.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ludogorets score1.30

Attack: Ludogorets score 50% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Ferencvarosi TC concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.30 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Ferencvarosi TC score1.27

Attack: Ferencvarosi TC score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.27 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–010.4%0–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.