Celtic–VfB Stuttgart

1–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'VfB StuttgartB. El Khannouss (assist: D. Undav)
21'CelticB. Nygren
28'VfB StuttgartB. El Khannouss (assist: A. Stiller)
57'VfB StuttgartJ. Leweling (assist: D. Undav)
90'VfB StuttgartT. Tomas (assist: N. Nartey)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celtic		VfB Stuttgart
11	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
555	Passes	507
472	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celtic 1.52 · VfB Stuttgart 1.65. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Celtic 11 · VfB Stuttgart 16; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

Eric Lambrechts, Belgium→

4.57

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “Celtic to win” at 35.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Celtic, 1.65 for VfB Stuttgart.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,927 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celtic to win35.9%

Draw22.8%

VfB Stuttgart to win41.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celtic score1.52

Attack: Celtic score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.65

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Celtic concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.2%1–28.7%2–18.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.