Lille–FK Crvena Zvezda

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'FK Crvena ZvezdaF. Tebo Uchenna (assist: Jay Enem)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lille		FK Crvena Zvezda
7	Shots	8
1	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	7
3	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
445	Passes	402
339	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lille 1.94 · FK Crvena Zvezda 1.39. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Lille 7 · FK Crvena Zvezda 8; on target 1 and 4.

Referee

Sven Jablonski, Germany→

3.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.7%: “Lille to win”. Second comes “FK Crvena Zvezda to win” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for Lille, 1.39 for FK Crvena Zvezda.
The highest double chance value is 78.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,178 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lille to win50.7%

Draw21.5%

FK Crvena Zvezda to win27.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lille score1.94

Attack: Lille score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score1.39

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 116% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lille's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.4%2–19.4%1–07.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.