PAOK–Celta Vigo

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'Celta VigoI. Aspas (assist: Miguel Román)
43'Celta VigoW. Swedberg (assist: I. Aspas)
77'PAOKA. Jeremejeff (assist: A. Živković)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PAOK		Celta Vigo
5	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	8
2	Shots inside the box	7
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	3
4	Offsides	4
58%	Possession	42%
568	Passes	434
506	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PAOK 1.28 · Celta Vigo 1.17. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots PAOK 5 · Celta Vigo 9; on target 2 and 8.
PAOK kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Ivan Kružliak, Slovakia→

7.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “PAOK to win”. Second comes “Celta Vigo to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for PAOK, 1.17 for Celta Vigo.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,142 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PAOK to win39.5%

Draw26.5%

Celta Vigo to win34.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PAOK score1.28

Attack: PAOK score 54% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.17

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–011.5%0–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.