Genk–Malmo FF

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 29 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Malmo FFT. Ali (assist: K. Busuladzic)
45'GenkD. Heymans (penalty)
82'GenkK. Karetsas (assist: D. Heymans)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Genk		Malmo FF
25	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	3
19	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
8	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
578	Passes	355
500	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Genk 1.87 · Malmo FF 0.98. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Genk 25 · Malmo FF 8; on target 9 and 3.
Genk kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Horatiu Fesnic, Romania→

5.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.5%: “Genk to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.87 for Genk, 0.98 for Malmo FF.
The highest double chance value is 80.2% (1X — Genk win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,992 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Genk to win58.5%

Draw21.7%

Malmo FF to win19.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Genk score1.87

Attack: Genk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Malmo FF concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Malmo FF score0.98

Attack: Malmo FF score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–011.1%1–110.3%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.