Maccabi Tel Aviv–Bologna

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 29 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'BolognaJ. Rowe (assist: Nikola Moro)
47'BolognaR. Orsolini (assist: N. Zortea)
90'BolognaTommaso Pobega

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Tel Aviv		Bologna
5	Shots	24
1	Shots on target	11
4	Shots inside the box	17
9	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	9
2	Offsides	8
41%	Possession	59%
334	Passes	486
253	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.09 · Bologna 1.84. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Maccabi Tel Aviv 5 · Bologna 24; on target 1 and 11.
Bologna kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Goga Kikacheishvili, Georgia→

4.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.1%: “Bologna to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win” at 22.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, 1.84 for Bologna.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,135 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win22.7%

Draw22.2%

Bologna to win55.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	21

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.09

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Bologna's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bologna score1.84

Attack: Bologna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.4%0–110.1%1–29.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.