FK Crvena Zvezda–Celta Vigo

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 29 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

88'Celta VigoFer López
89'FK Crvena ZvezdaBruno Duarte (assist: T. Elšnik)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda		Celta Vigo
12	Shots	5
2	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
534	Passes	413
457	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda 1.71 · Celta Vigo 1.55. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FK Crvena Zvezda 12 · Celta Vigo 5; on target 2 and 3.
FK Crvena Zvezda kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Andrea Colombo, Italy→

5.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.1%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “Celta Vigo to win” at 35.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 1.55 for Celta Vigo.
The highest double chance value is 77.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,313 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Crvena Zvezda to win42.1%

Draw22.5%

Celta Vigo to win35.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score1.71

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 113% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.55

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.9%2–18.7%1–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.