Ludogorets–Nice

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 29 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.2% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'LudogoretsPetar Stanić (assist: Caio Vidal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ludogorets		Nice
19	Shots	19
8	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	7
5	Corners	8
2	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
448	Passes	448
385	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ludogorets 1.32 · Nice 1.39. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Ludogorets 19 · Nice 19; on target 8 and 4.

Referee

Ondrej Berka, Czechia→

3.43

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “Nice to win”. Second comes “Ludogorets to win” at 35.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Ludogorets, 1.39 for Nice.
The highest double chance value is 75.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,076 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ludogorets to win35.9%

Draw25.0%

Nice to win39.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ludogorets score1.32

Attack: Ludogorets score above the league average (47% more).

Opponent's defence: Nice's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nice score1.39

Attack: Nice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%0–19.6%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.