FCSB–Fenerbahçe

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 29 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Fenerbahçeİ. Yüksek (assist: K. Akturkoglu)
71'FCSBJ. Cisotti (assist: R. Radunovic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FCSB		Fenerbahçe
15	Shots	17
8	Shots on target	8
14	Shots inside the box	11
8	Goalkeeper saves	7
7	Corners	5
1	Offsides	3
34%	Possession	66%
306	Passes	621
226	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FCSB 1.58 · Fenerbahçe 1.39. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FCSB 15 · Fenerbahçe 17; on target 8 and 8.
Fenerbahçe kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Nenad Minaković, Serbia→

5.14

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “FCSB to win”. Second comes “Fenerbahçe to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for FCSB, 1.39 for Fenerbahçe.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,228 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FCSB to win42.2%

Draw23.7%

Fenerbahçe to win34.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FCSB score1.58

Attack: FCSB score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.58 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Fenerbahçe score1.39

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FCSB concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%2–18.9%1–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.