FC Basel 1893–Plzen

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 29 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'PlzenJiří Panoš (assist: Merchas Doski)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Basel 1893		Plzen
13	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	12
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	7
0	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
373	Passes	456
285	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Basel 1893 1.94 · Plzen 1.74. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots FC Basel 1893 13 · Plzen 15; on target 3 and 3.
Plzen kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Giorgi Kruashvili, Georgia→

4.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “FC Basel 1893 to win”. Second comes “Plzen to win” at 35.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for FC Basel 1893, 1.74 for Plzen.
The highest double chance value is 78.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,648 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Basel 1893 to win43.6%

Draw21.1%

Plzen to win35.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Basel 1893 score1.94

Attack: FC Basel 1893 score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Plzen's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Plzen score1.74

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Basel 1893's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–18.3%1–18.3%1–27.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.