GO Ahead Eagles–SC Braga

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 29 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
GO Ahead Eagles		SC Braga
4	Shots	9
0	Shots on target	1
2	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
472	Passes	527
381	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GO Ahead Eagles 1.19 · SC Braga 2.08. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots GO Ahead Eagles 4 · SC Braga 9; on target 0 and 1.

Referee

Willy Delajod, France→

2.90

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.1%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “GO Ahead Eagles to win” at 21.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for GO Ahead Eagles, 2.08 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 79.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,185 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GO Ahead Eagles to win21.6%

Draw20.3%

SC Braga to win58.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	5

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.19

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score2.08

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–29.8%1–19.1%0–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.