FC Porto–Rangers

3–1

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 29 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'RangersD. Gassama (assist: Findlay Curtis)
27'FC PortoRodrigo Mora
36'FC PortoFrancisco Moura
41'FC PortoE. Fernandez (own goal · assist: William)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Porto		Rangers
12	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	3
3	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
339	Passes	489
291	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Porto 1.83 · Rangers 0.69. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots FC Porto 12 · Rangers 5; on target 3 and 2.
Rangers kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Jasper Vergoote, Belgium→

4.43

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.9%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for FC Porto, 0.69 for Rangers.
The highest double chance value is 86.2% (1X — FC Porto win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,880 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Porto to win64.9%

Draw21.3%

Rangers to win13.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Porto score1.83

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Rangers concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.83 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Rangers score0.69

Attack: Rangers score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 48% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.69 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–015.0%2–013.5%1–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.