VfB Stuttgart–BSC Young Boys

3–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 29 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'VfB StuttgartD. Undav (assist: L. Assignon)
7'VfB StuttgartE. Demirović (assist: D. Undav)
42'BSC Young BoysA. Gigovic (assist: G. Wuthrich)
57'BSC Young BoysS. Lauper (assist: E. Fernandes)
90'VfB StuttgartJosé María Andrés Baixauli (assist: J. Leweling)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfB Stuttgart		BSC Young Boys
28	Shots	12
10	Shots on target	4
18	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
8	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
527	Passes	347
447	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart 3.30 · BSC Young Boys 0.92. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots VfB Stuttgart 28 · BSC Young Boys 12; on target 10 and 4.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain→

3.73

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 82.7%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 10.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.30 for VfB Stuttgart, 0.92 for BSC Young Boys.
The highest double chance value is 93.1% (1X — VfB Stuttgart win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,819 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfB Stuttgart to win82.7%

Draw10.4%

BSC Young Boys to win6.9%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	3

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score3.30

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: BSC Young Boys's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals BSC Young Boys score0.92

Attack: BSC Young Boys score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–08.8%3–18.1%2–08.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.