Lyon–PAOK

4–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 29 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'PAOKG. Giakoumakis (assist: A. Zivkovic)
34'LyonR. Himbert (assist: Afonso Moreira)
40'PAOKG. Konstantelias · red card
55'LyonK. Merah (assist: Afonso Moreira)
66'PAOKS. Meite (assist: A. Zivkovic)
88'LyonAdam Karabec

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lyon		PAOK
19	Shots	5
8	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	2
4	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
556	Passes	337
506	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lyon 1.73 · PAOK 1.08. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Lyon 19 · PAOK 5; on target 8 and 3.
Lyon kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain→

3.88

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.0%: “Lyon to win”. Second comes “PAOK to win” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Lyon, 1.08 for PAOK.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,904 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lyon to win53.0%

Draw23.1%

PAOK to win23.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

(assist: A. Hamdani)

90'LyonA. Gomes Rodriguez (assist: Adam Karabec)

15	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lyon win or draw76.1%

12 — any result other than a draw76.9%

X2 — draw or PAOK win47.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.1%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.5%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lyon score1.73

Attack: Lyon score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAOK score1.08

Attack: PAOK score 59% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lyon's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%1–010.8%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1904 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 121 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.