Red Bull Salzburg–FC Basel 1893

3–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 22 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.8% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Red Bull SalzburgKerim-Sam Alajbegović
12'Red Bull SalzburgKerim-Sam Alajbegović (assist: S. Diabate)
35'Red Bull SalzburgF. Krätzig
56'FC Basel 1893Jeremy Agbonifo (assist: F. Daniliuc)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Red Bull Salzburg		FC Basel 1893
21	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	2
0	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
597	Passes	365
520	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Red Bull Salzburg 1.86 · FC Basel 1893 1.74. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Red Bull Salzburg 21 · FC Basel 1893 9; on target 8 and 3.
Red Bull Salzburg kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Anastasios Papapetrou, Greece→

3.89

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.7%: “Red Bull Salzburg to win”. Second comes “FC Basel 1893 to win” at 36.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for Red Bull Salzburg, 1.74 for FC Basel 1893.
The highest double chance value is 78.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,313 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Red Bull Salzburg to win41.7%

Draw21.4%

FC Basel 1893 to win36.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Red Bull Salzburg score1.86

Attack: Red Bull Salzburg score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Basel 1893's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Basel 1893 score1.74

Attack: FC Basel 1893 score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Red Bull Salzburg's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–18.6%2–18.2%1–27.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.