Celta Vigo–Lille

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 22 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'Celta VigoWilliot Swedberg (assist: I. Aspas)
29'Celta VigoH. Sotelo · red card
69'Celta VigoCarl Starfelt (assist: Miguel Román)
86'LilleO. Giroud (assist: S. Diaoune)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celta Vigo		Lille
7	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	7
2	Offsides	3
26%	Possession	74%
221	Passes	607
145	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celta Vigo 1.56 · Lille 1.20. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Celta Vigo 7 · Lille 20; on target 4 and 4.
Lille kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

Harm Osmers, Germany→

4.43

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.0%: “Celta Vigo to win”. Second comes “Lille to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Celta Vigo, 1.20 for Lille.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,493 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celta Vigo to win46.0%

Draw24.3%

Lille to win29.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.56

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lille's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lille score1.20

Attack: Lille score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%1–010.2%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.