AS Roma–VfB Stuttgart

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 22 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'AS RomaNiccolò Pisilli (assist: Matías Soulé)
90'AS RomaNiccolò Pisilli (assist: Paulo Dybala)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Roma		VfB Stuttgart
12	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
458	Passes	451
379	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Roma 1.55 · VfB Stuttgart 1.27. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots AS Roma 12 · VfB Stuttgart 15; on target 4 and 5.

Referee

John Brooks, England→

5.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.1%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “VfB Stuttgart to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for AS Roma, 1.27 for VfB Stuttgart.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,427 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Roma to win44.1%

Draw24.2%

VfB Stuttgart to win31.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Roma score1.55

Attack: AS Roma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.27

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–09.6%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.