Rangers–Ludogorets

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 22 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'RangersMohammed Diomande (assist: T. Aasgaard)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rangers		Ludogorets
14	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
432	Passes	434
362	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rangers 1.47 · Ludogorets 1.03. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Rangers 14 · Ludogorets 12; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

Manfredas Lukjancukas, Lithuania→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.6%: “Rangers to win”. Second comes “Ludogorets to win” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Rangers, 1.03 for Ludogorets.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,699 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rangers to win47.6%

Draw25.5%

Ludogorets to win26.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	13

6	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rangers score1.47

Attack: Rangers score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.47 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Ludogorets score1.03

Attack: Ludogorets score above the league average (47% more).

Opponent's defence: Rangers concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.03 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–012.5%1–112.1%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.