Fenerbahçe–Aston Villa

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 22 January 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Aston VillaJ. Sancho

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fenerbahçe		Aston Villa
13	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	8
5	Corners	5
7	Offsides	2
63%	Possession	37%
510	Passes	289
445	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fenerbahçe 1.66 · Aston Villa 1.30. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Fenerbahçe 13 · Aston Villa 12; on target 8 and 4.
Fenerbahçe kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Luís Godinho, Portugal→

5.29

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.1%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “Aston Villa to win” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Fenerbahçe, 1.30 for Aston Villa.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,585 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fenerbahçe to win46.1%

Draw23.4%

Aston Villa to win30.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fenerbahçe score1.66

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aston Villa score1.30

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%2–19.3%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.