BSC Young Boys–Lyon

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 22 January 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'LyonA. Maitland-Niles

Match statistics

Match statistics
BSC Young Boys		Lyon
7	Shots	13
1	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
39%	Possession	61%
341	Passes	569
283	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: BSC Young Boys 1.04 · Lyon 2.27. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots BSC Young Boys 7 · Lyon 13; on target 1 and 4.
Lyon kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Aliyar Aghayev, Azerbaijan→

3.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.4%: “Lyon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.04 for BSC Young Boys, 2.27 for Lyon.
The highest double chance value is 83.7% (X2 — draw or Lyon win).
These values were computed from 1,879 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

BSC Young Boys to win16.3%

Draw18.4%

Lyon to win65.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,059 of 1,563 predictions were correct (67.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals BSC Young Boys score1.04

Attack: BSC Young Boys score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lyon's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lyon score2.27

Attack: Lyon score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: BSC Young Boys's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–29.8%0–29.4%0–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.