Malmo FF–FK Crvena Zvezda

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 22 January 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'FK Crvena ZvezdaV. Kostov (assist: M. Arnautovic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Malmo FF		FK Crvena Zvezda
4	Shots	11
0	Shots on target	3
2	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	7
0	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
435	Passes	610
340	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Malmo FF 1.32 · FK Crvena Zvezda 2.04. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Malmo FF 4 · FK Crvena Zvezda 11; on target 0 and 3.
FK Crvena Zvezda kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Sascha Stegemann, Germany→

3.46

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.3%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “Malmo FF to win” at 24.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Malmo FF, 2.04 for FK Crvena Zvezda.
The highest double chance value is 79.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,924 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Malmo FF to win24.9%

Draw20.8%

FK Crvena Zvezda to win54.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Malmo FF score1.32

Attack: Malmo FF score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score2.04

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 113% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Malmo FF concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.04 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–29.5%1–19.1%0–17.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.