Brann–FC Midtjylland

3–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 22 January 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'FC MidtjyllandMartin Erlić (assist: P. Billing)
19'BrannN. Holm (assist: D. De Roeve)
31'FC MidtjyllandJunior Brumado
68'BrannE. Kornvig (penalty)
70'FC MidtjyllandMartin Erlić (assist: Lee Han-Beom)
90'BrannJ. Soltvedt (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Brann		FC Midtjylland
23	Shots	10
11	Shots on target	7
19	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	8
11	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
278	Passes	287
177	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Brann 1.62 · FC Midtjylland 1.61. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Brann 23 · FC Midtjylland 10; on target 11 and 7.

Referee

Georgi Kabakov, Bulgaria→

5.45

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.9%: “Brann to win”. Second comes “FC Midtjylland to win” at 38.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Brann, 1.61 for FC Midtjylland.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,553 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Brann to win38.9%

Draw22.7%

FC Midtjylland to win38.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	17

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Brann score1.62

Attack: Brann score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Midtjylland score1.61

Attack: FC Midtjylland score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Brann concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.0%2–18.4%1–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.