Feyenoord–Sturm Graz

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 22 January 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'FeyenoordT. Watanabe (assist: A. Hadj-Moussa)
68'FeyenoordA. Hadj-Moussa (assist: S. Steijn)
90'FeyenoordGonçalo Borges (assist: S. van Persie)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Feyenoord		Sturm Graz
18	Shots	4
6	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
501	Passes	339
410	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Feyenoord 2.70 · Sturm Graz 1.03. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Feyenoord 18 · Sturm Graz 4; on target 6 and 2.
Feyenoord kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Halil Umut Meler, Türkiye→

5.00

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.0%: “Feyenoord to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.70 for Feyenoord, 1.03 for Sturm Graz.
The highest double chance value is 88.0% (1X — Feyenoord win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,676 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Feyenoord to win73.0%

Draw15.0%

Sturm Graz to win12.0%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Feyenoord score2.70

Attack: Feyenoord score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: Sturm Graz's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sturm Graz score1.03

Attack: Sturm Graz score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Feyenoord concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.0%2–08.8%3–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.