FC Basel 1893–Aston Villa

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 11 December 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Aston VillaE. Guessand
34'FC Basel 1893F. Daniliuc (assist: X. Shaqiri)
53'Aston VillaY. Tielemans (assist: E. Buendía)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Basel 1893		Aston Villa
11	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	4
7	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
396	Passes	537
338	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Basel 1893 1.35 · Aston Villa 1.83. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots FC Basel 1893 11 · Aston Villa 7; on target 4 and 4.
Aston Villa kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Halil Umut Meler, Türkiye→

4.88

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.2%: “Aston Villa to win”. Second comes “FC Basel 1893 to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for FC Basel 1893, 1.83 for Aston Villa.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,992 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Basel 1893 to win28.6%

Draw22.2%

Aston Villa to win49.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Basel 1893 score1.35

Attack: FC Basel 1893 score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aston Villa score1.83

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Basel 1893's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.0%1–29.4%0–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.