Celta Vigo–Bologna

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 11 December 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.5% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Celta VigoB. Zaragoza (assist: W. Swedberg)
66'BolognaFederico Bernardeschi (penalty)
74'BolognaFederico Bernardeschi (assist: Nicolò Cambiaghi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celta Vigo		Bologna
3	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	4
2	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
462	Passes	448
380	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celta Vigo 1.27 · Bologna 1.26. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Celta Vigo 3 · Bologna 15; on target 1 and 4.

Referee

Radu Marian Petrescu, Romania→

3.78

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.2%: “Celta Vigo to win”. Second comes “Bologna to win” at 36.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Celta Vigo, 1.26 for Bologna.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,572 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celta Vigo to win37.2%

Draw26.0%

Bologna to win36.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.27

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bologna's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bologna score1.26

Attack: Bologna score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–010.5%0–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.