Lyon–GO Ahead Eagles

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 11 December 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'LyonAfonso Moreira (assist: T. Morton)
6'GO Ahead EaglesM. Smit (assist: M. Meulensteen)
11'LyonP. Sulc (assist: A. Maitland-Niles)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lyon		GO Ahead Eagles
17	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
661	Passes	409
583	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lyon 2.60 · GO Ahead Eagles 0.92. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Lyon 17 · GO Ahead Eagles 7; on target 6 and 3.
Lyon kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Juxhin Xhaja, Albania→

6.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.7%: “Lyon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.60 for Lyon, 0.92 for GO Ahead Eagles.
The highest double chance value is 88.8% (1X — Lyon win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,180 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lyon to win73.7%

Draw15.1%

GO Ahead Eagles to win11.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 941 of 1,254 predictions were correct (75.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lyon score2.60

Attack: Lyon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score0.92

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lyon's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.0%2–19.2%3–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.