Ferencvarosi TC–Rangers

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 11 December 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'RangersB. Miovski (assist: Danilo Pereira)
45'Ferencvarosi TCB. Otvos (assist: I. Cisse)
72'Ferencvarosi TCB. Varga (assist: C. O'Dowda)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ferencvarosi TC		Rangers
16	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
493	Passes	395
413	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ferencvarosi TC 1.74 · Rangers 1.14. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Ferencvarosi TC 16 · Rangers 7; on target 3 and 2.
Ferencvarosi TC kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Anastasios Papapetrou, Greece→

4.00

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.8%: “Ferencvarosi TC to win”. Second comes “Rangers to win” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Ferencvarosi TC, 1.14 for Rangers.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,437 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ferencvarosi TC to win51.8%

Draw22.9%

Rangers to win25.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ferencvarosi TC score1.74

Attack: Ferencvarosi TC score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: Rangers concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.74 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Rangers score1.14

Attack: Rangers score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Ferencvarosi TC concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.14 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–110.8%1–010.1%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.