Sturm Graz–FK Crvena Zvezda

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 11 December 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'FK Crvena ZvezdaM. Ivanić (assist: T. Elšnik)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sturm Graz		FK Crvena Zvezda
16	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
428	Passes	301
344	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sturm Graz 1.41 · FK Crvena Zvezda 2.35. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Sturm Graz 16 · FK Crvena Zvezda 15; on target 1 and 2.
Sturm Graz kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Damian Sylwestrzak, Poland→

5.11

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.8%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “Sturm Graz to win” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Sturm Graz, 2.35 for FK Crvena Zvezda.
The highest double chance value is 81.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,529 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sturm Graz to win22.4%

Draw18.9%

FK Crvena Zvezda to win58.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	21

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sturm Graz score1.41

Attack: Sturm Graz score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score2.35

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 115% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sturm Graz's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–29.1%1–17.5%1–37.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.