BSC Young Boys–Lille

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 11 December 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'LilleA. Bouaddi · red card
61'BSC Young BoysD. Males
90+3'BSC Young BoysTanguy Zoukrou · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
BSC Young Boys		Lille
11	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
1	Corners	3
3	Offsides	3
45%	Possession	55%
426	Passes	521
363	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: BSC Young Boys 1.06 · Lille 2.00. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots BSC Young Boys 11 · Lille 10; on target 5 and 1.
Lille kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Sander van der Eijk, Netherlands→

4.25

yellows per match

0.63

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.4%: “Lille to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for BSC Young Boys, 2.00 for Lille.
The highest double chance value is 80.1% (X2 — draw or Lille win).
These values were computed from 1,829 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

BSC Young Boys to win19.9%

Draw20.8%

Lille to win59.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	5

2	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals BSC Young Boys score1.06

Attack: BSC Young Boys score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lille concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lille score2.00

Attack: Lille score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: BSC Young Boys's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–29.9%0–19.7%1–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.