FC Midtjylland–Genk

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 11 December 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'FC MidtjyllandCho Gue-Sung (assist: D. Osorio)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Midtjylland		Genk
14	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
353	Passes	368
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Midtjylland 1.84 · Genk 1.31. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Midtjylland 14 · Genk 11; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

Vassilis Fotias, Greece→

4.00

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.2%: “FC Midtjylland to win”. Second comes “Genk to win” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for FC Midtjylland, 1.31 for Genk.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,586 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Midtjylland to win50.2%

Draw22.2%

Genk to win27.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Midtjylland score1.84

Attack: FC Midtjylland score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genk score1.31

Attack: Genk score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.0%2–19.5%1–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.