VfB Stuttgart–Maccabi Tel Aviv

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 11 December 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'VfB StuttgartL. Assignon (assist: M. Mittelstädt)
37'VfB StuttgartT. Tomas (assist: D. Undav)
50'VfB StuttgartM. Mittelstädt (penalty)
52'Maccabi Tel AvivR. Revivo (assist: I. Ben Hamo)
90'VfB StuttgartJ. Vagnoman (assist: B. Bouanani)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfB Stuttgart		Maccabi Tel Aviv
15	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
617	Passes	311
558	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart 2.36 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.24. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots VfB Stuttgart 15 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 7; on target 7 and 2.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Marian Barbu, Romania→

2.60

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.4%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win” at 19.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.36 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.24 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 81.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,761 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfB Stuttgart to win62.4%

Draw18.4%

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win19.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,274 of 2,042 predictions were correct (62.4%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score2.36

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.24

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.4%1–17.8%2–07.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.