Panathinaikos–Sturm Graz

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'PanathinaikosK. Swiderski (assist: Anass Zaroury)
34'Sturm GrazO. Kiteishvili (assist: Jon Gorenc Stanković)
74'PanathinaikosD. Calabria

Match statistics

Match statistics
Panathinaikos		Sturm Graz
8	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
497	Passes	429
418	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Panathinaikos 1.76 · Sturm Graz 1.10. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Panathinaikos 8 · Sturm Graz 7; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

Simone Sozza, Italy→

3.43

yellows per match

0.86

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.1%: “Panathinaikos to win”. Second comes “Sturm Graz to win” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Panathinaikos, 1.10 for Sturm Graz.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,263 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Panathinaikos to win53.1%

Draw22.8%

Sturm Graz to win24.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	21

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Panathinaikos score1.76

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Sturm Graz's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sturm Graz score1.10

Attack: Sturm Graz score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.10 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–110.8%1–010.4%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.