Maccabi Tel Aviv–Lyon

0–6

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'LyonAbner Vinicius (assist: C. Tolisso)
25'LyonC. Tolisso (assist: Abner Vinicius)
35'LyonM. Niakhate (penalty)
51'LyonC. Tolisso (assist: P. Sulc)
53'LyonC. Tolisso (assist: P. Sulc)
62'LyonAdam Karabec

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Tel Aviv		Lyon
5	Shots	18
0	Shots on target	8
3	Shots inside the box	15
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
33%	Possession	67%
319	Passes	634
248	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.33 · Lyon 1.75. On the pitch: 0-6.
Shots Maccabi Tel Aviv 5 · Lyon 18; on target 0 and 8.
Lyon kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Kristo Tohver, Estonia→

5.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.6%: “Lyon to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, 1.75 for Lyon.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,814 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win29.6%

Draw22.8%

Lyon to win47.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

90+1'Maccabi Tel AvivS. Yehezkel · red card

12	Fouls	12

5	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,226 of 3,698 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Maccabi Tel Aviv win or draw52.4%

12 — any result other than a draw77.2%

X2 — draw or Lyon win70.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.8%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.33

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lyon's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lyon score1.75

Attack: Lyon score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.4%1–29.4%0–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1814 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 117 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.