FK Crvena Zvezda–FCSB

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'FK Crvena ZvezdaF. Tebo Uchenna · red card
50'FK Crvena ZvezdaBruno Duarte (assist: Seol Young-Woo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda		FCSB
14	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	5
3	Offsides	4
39%	Possession	61%
342	Passes	545
252	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda 1.86 · FCSB 1.51. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FK Crvena Zvezda 14 · FCSB 13; on target 5 and 2.
FCSB kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Jérôme Brisard, France→

5.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.4%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “FCSB to win” at 31.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 1.51 for FCSB.
The highest double chance value is 78.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,875 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Crvena Zvezda to win46.4%

Draw21.8%

FCSB to win31.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score1.86

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 118% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FCSB concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FCSB score1.51

Attack: FCSB score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.51 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–19.4%2–19.0%1–27.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.