Real Betis–Utrecht

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'Real BetisC. Hernández (assist: Antony)
50'Real BetisA. Ezzalzouli (assist: Pablo Fornals)
55'UtrechtMiguel Rodríguez

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Betis		Utrecht
18	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
65%	Possession	35%
605	Passes	320
528	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Betis 2.15 · Utrecht 0.89. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Real Betis 18 · Utrecht 6; on target 7 and 3.
Real Betis kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Nenad Minaković, Serbia→

5.67

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.6%: “Real Betis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.15 for Real Betis, 0.89 for Utrecht.
The highest double chance value is 85.3% (1X — Real Betis win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,305 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Betis to win66.6%

Draw18.8%

Utrecht to win14.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Betis score2.15

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Utrecht's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Utrecht score0.89

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.0%1–010.5%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.