Rangers–SC Braga

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'RangersJ. Tavernier (penalty)
61'SC BragaR. Zalazar · red card
69'SC BragaG. Martinez
90+5'RangersMohammed Diomande · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rangers		SC Braga
12	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
363	Passes	401
287	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rangers 1.36 · SC Braga 1.43. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Rangers 12 · SC Braga 9; on target 6 and 5.

Referee

Allard Lindhout, Netherlands→

3.00

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “Rangers to win” at 36.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Rangers, 1.43 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,747 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rangers to win36.1%

Draw24.6%

SC Braga to win39.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rangers score1.36

Attack: Rangers score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score1.43

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Rangers concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%0–19.2%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.