Fenerbahçe–Ferencvarosi TC

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

66'Ferencvarosi TCB. Varga (assist: G. Kanichowsky)
69'FenerbahçeTalisca (assist: N. Dorgeles)
90+1'FenerbahçeJhon Durán · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fenerbahçe		Ferencvarosi TC
19	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
66%	Possession	34%
587	Passes	293
520	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fenerbahçe 1.92 · Ferencvarosi TC 1.24. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Fenerbahçe 19 · Ferencvarosi TC 5; on target 6 and 1.
Fenerbahçe kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain→

3.79

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.6%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “Ferencvarosi TC to win” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for Fenerbahçe, 1.24 for Ferencvarosi TC.
The highest double chance value is 78.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,856 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fenerbahçe to win53.6%

Draw21.6%

Ferencvarosi TC to win24.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	17

4	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fenerbahçe score1.92

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Ferencvarosi TC concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.92 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Ferencvarosi TC score1.24

Attack: Ferencvarosi TC score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.24 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–19.8%2–19.7%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.