Ludogorets–Celta Vigo

3–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'LudogoretsPetar Stanić (penalty)
49'LudogoretsPetar Stanić (assist: O. Verdon)
62'LudogoretsPetar Stanić (penalty)
70'Celta VigoPablo Durán (assist: B. Zaragoza)
90'Celta VigoJ. El Abdellaoui (assist: B. Zaragoza)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ludogorets		Celta Vigo
7	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	7
3	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
444	Passes	572
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ludogorets 1.12 · Celta Vigo 1.46. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Ludogorets 7 · Celta Vigo 19; on target 4 and 7.
Celta Vigo kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Balazs Berke, Hungary→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “Celta Vigo to win”. Second comes “Ludogorets to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Ludogorets, 1.46 for Celta Vigo.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,158 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ludogorets to win29.3%

Draw25.3%

Celta Vigo to win45.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ludogorets score1.12

Attack: Ludogorets score above the league average (45% more).

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.46

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%0–111.5%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.