AS Roma–FC Midtjylland

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'AS RomaN. El Aynaoui (assist: Zeki Çelik)
83'AS RomaStephan El Shaarawy (assist: L. Bailey)
86'FC MidtjyllandPaulinho (assist: Aral Şimşir)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Roma		FC Midtjylland
13	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	6
2	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
450	Passes	374
366	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Roma 1.85 · FC Midtjylland 1.06. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots AS Roma 13 · FC Midtjylland 12; on target 6 and 2.

Referee

Nikola Dabanovic, Montenegro→

4.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.0%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.85 for AS Roma, 1.06 for FC Midtjylland.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (1X — AS Roma win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,842 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Roma to win56.0%

Draw22.0%

FC Midtjylland to win22.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	20

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Roma score1.85

Attack: AS Roma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Midtjylland score1.06

Attack: FC Midtjylland score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.4%1–010.4%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.