FC Porto–Nice

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio do Dragão, Porto

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'FC PortoGabri Veiga (assist: Pepê Aquino)
33'FC PortoGabri Veiga (assist: V. Froholdt)
61'FC PortoSamu (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Porto		Nice
6	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	0
4	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
501	Passes	390
439	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Porto 1.72 · Nice 0.89. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots FC Porto 6 · Nice 8; on target 3 and 0.
FC Porto kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Matej Jug, Slovenia→

5.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.5%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for FC Porto, 0.89 for Nice.
The highest double chance value is 80.5% (1X — FC Porto win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,126 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Porto to win57.5%

Draw23.0%

Nice to win19.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Porto score1.72

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Nice's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nice score0.89

Attack: Nice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.0%2–010.9%1–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.