Aston Villa–BSC Young Boys

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'Aston VillaDonyell Malen (assist: Y. Tielemans)
42'Aston VillaDonyell Malen (assist: M. Rogers)
90'BSC Young BoysJoël Monteiro (assist: G. Wuthrich)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aston Villa		BSC Young Boys
19	Shots	6
8	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	0
1	Offsides	6
60%	Possession	40%
569	Passes	376
509	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aston Villa 2.23 · BSC Young Boys 0.84. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Aston Villa 19 · BSC Young Boys 6; on target 8 and 1.
Aston Villa kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Georgi Kabakov, Bulgaria→

5.70

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.2%: “Aston Villa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.23 for Aston Villa, 0.84 for BSC Young Boys.
The highest double chance value is 87.0% (1X — Aston Villa win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,950 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aston Villa to win69.2%

Draw17.8%

BSC Young Boys to win13.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aston Villa score2.23

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: BSC Young Boys's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals BSC Young Boys score0.84

Attack: BSC Young Boys score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.5%1–010.6%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.