PAOK–BSC Young Boys

4–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'BSC Young BoysA. Gigovic · red card
54'PAOKA. Bianco (assist: A. Baba)
67'PAOKG. Giakoumakis (assist: M. Ozdoev)
72'PAOKG. Konstantelias (assist: A. Živković)
76'PAOKA. Baba (assist: J. Kenny)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PAOK		BSC Young Boys
23	Shots	7
10	Shots on target	1
19	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	0
2	Offsides	2
65%	Possession	35%
565	Passes	302
497	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PAOK 2.16 · BSC Young Boys 0.94. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots PAOK 23 · BSC Young Boys 7; on target 10 and 1.
PAOK kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Srdan Jovanovic, Serbia→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.4%: “PAOK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.16 for PAOK, 0.94 for BSC Young Boys.
The highest double chance value is 84.3% (1X — PAOK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,357 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PAOK to win65.4%

Draw19.0%

BSC Young Boys to win15.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,059 of 1,563 predictions were correct (67.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PAOK score2.16

Attack: PAOK score 51% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: BSC Young Boys's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals BSC Young Boys score0.94

Attack: BSC Young Boys score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.5%1–010.0%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.